Money How to tell if a recession hits in 2023. Keep a close eye on unemployment, consumer spending January 12, 2023January 13, 2023 Paul Davidson, USA TODAY Comments Off on How to tell if a recession hits in 2023. Keep a close eye on unemployment, consumer spending If recession hits in 2023, unemployment will rise, jobs will be lost, consumer spending will fall. But it won't be as bad as the last two downturns.